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Angka Positif Dan Kematian Covid-19 Di Jawa Meningkat


Ridwan Kamil - Gubernur Jawa Barat
Ganjar Pranowo - Gubernur Jawa Tengah

Penyebaran kasus covid-19 terus bertambah setelah masa libur lebaran. Provinsi Jawa Barat menjadi wilayah yang paling banyak menyumbang kasus harian covid-19 beberapa hari terakhir. Tak hanya di Jawa Barat, angka kematian akibat covid-19 terbanyak, justru terjadi di Provinsi Jawa Tengah.

Bagaimana dua kepala daerah ini menjawab lonjakan kasus dan angka kematian akibat corona di wilayahnya? Sore ini Rivana Partiwi berdialog melalui sambungan zoom dengan Gubernur Jawa Barat Ridwan Kamil dan Gubernur Jawa Tengah Ganjar Pranowo dalam program CNN Newsroom.

COVID 19 The Second Wave - How dangerous it is? When to get hospitalized? and Treatment protocol.

covid 19 vaccines of India Covishield and Covaxin list of possible side effects
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The healthcare infrastructure is overstressed. Covid numbers are rising at a breakneck pace. Over 1,000 people are dying every day.
The second wave of Covid infections has put India in a bind with the Centre and state doubling down efforts to bring the worrying situation under control.

most of the complaints and reports of repeat infection are of the Covaxin, for which insufficient scientific evidence was released, says Prabhat Jha, founding director of the Centre for Global Health Research at St. Michael’s Hospital in Toronto, who is regarded as one of the most influential epidemiologists in the world.

What do you make of this second wave of the pandemic in India, which appears to have caught the authorities by surprise?

I had always warned that a large repeat wave was possible. It's very likely driven by variants, which are more infectious and seems to be affecting younger adults. Allowing large scale political and religious gatherings in February and March and the hubris that India had beaten the first wave, have contributed to complacency.

The optimism that India might have beaten the COVID-19 pandemic has given way to pessimism from the sharp increase in new cases and deaths from the disease. Maharashtra seems to be particularly affected, but nearly all states are reporting increases. The epidemiology of COVID-19 is poorly understood, but some early understanding of the transmission of the virus can enable a more effective science-driven response.

In your estimation, how long will this second phase last in India?

It is difficult to say. Usually, declines take twice as long as reaching the peak. We still don’t see a peak yet in India.

Given the poor socio-economic conditions in the country, its lack of mass awareness coupled with poverty and ignorance, do you see the pandemic lasting longer here than in other countries?

We don't know. Intergenerational transmission within households and crowding are the key drivers of the increase. It was, and remains, wishful thinking that India had achieved ‘herd immunity'. The patterns of infection in India clearly suggest multi-generational transmission, with younger adults the engine of transmission into the elderly. Various serosurveys have consistently found that half or more of tested urban populations have antibodies to the virus. However, this high level of infection is not the same as a markedly reduced level of transmission, which is what is required for herd immunity.

The Indian Council of Medical Research's (ICMR) national serosurvey had design limitations such that it probably underestimated the true national prevalence. A far larger and better set of serial surveys is required. Finally, we need to understand better why some populations are not affected.

How successful has been vaccination? In India, it has mixed reports. People have been infected even after getting their second dose.

The AstraZeneca/Covishield vaccine has strong efficacy against the original strain (about 80 percent or so) and we await evidence on how well it works against the recent Indian variants (it should work). Most of the complaints and reports of repeat infection are of the Covaxin, for which insufficient scientific evidence was released.

Would you say, as some are saying, that coronavirus has been on the decline in some countries in the world? If so why?

Most countries affected by variants have shown a third peak, even some states in the US. The UK and Israel have mostly avoided such a third wave due to vaccination efforts. But not so for most other countries. Portugal is interesting - only a modest third wave thus far. Thailand had avoided any major peak but is seeing one now. We don't know the reasons for the widespread variation.

Some leading authorities in India are saying that this second wave, by most accounts more contagious, could last for as long as the end of 2021. Do you agree?

We don't know.

Could there be a third wave in India and the world at large?

Much of the world is already in a big third wave.

If the answer is yes then what shape could it take?

We don't know.

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